Deporting all illegal immigrants from the U.S. could result in an 8% decrease in GDP.

Trump promised to deport all immigrants living in the country without permission, with estimates suggesting their number reaches 11 million. On Friday, January 24, the new administration began sending deportees to Guatemala and El Salvador on U.S. military planes.

Experts from Wall Street, economists, and analysts warn that implementing these plans will cause a significant economic shock. Inflation is expected to rise, and the agricultural and construction sectors will face a labor shortage. According to Bloomberg Economics, mass deportation of illegal migrants could reduce the U.S. GDP by 8%.

“When it comes to the rapid deportation of 10 million people, while the economic consequences may not be as devastating as during the pandemic, they could be comparable,” said Mark Malek, Chief Investment Officer at Siebert.

Despite these risks, the S&P 500 index reached a new record. Investors are skeptical about the likelihood of fully realizing Trump's plans.

“People often forget that loud statements do not always lead to real actions, especially considering the upcoming midterm elections in 20 months. We don’t want to exaggerate the short-term effect and draw erroneous conclusions,” noted Todd Alstine, Chief Investment Officer at Parnassus Investments.

Earlier reports indicated that actual consumer inflation in December 2024 exceeded the forecast of the National Bank of Ukraine, and prices will continue to rise.