"Every year, a city the size of Zhytomyr vanishes." When can Ukraine expect an influx of labor migrants?

In January, a news story sparked significant discussion on social media regarding the furniture manufacturer "Lamella" in Transcarpathia, which plans to attract 160 labor migrants from Bangladesh. The company reportedly held talks with the Ministry of Foreign Affairs about employing foreigners and even prepared beds in its own hotel.

Ukrainians expressed outrage over this initiative, questioning why the company was not hiring local workers. EП contacted "Lamella" to learn the reasons behind this decision, but they responded that the information about plans to employ migrants "does not correspond to reality."

However, after some time, the commercial director of the furniture enterprise, Yaroslav Shcherban, revealed to Zaxid.net that they indeed planned to employ foreigners, but only 60 workers. Yet, there are currently no Bangladeshi citizens on the company's staff.

Attracting labor migrants is a common practice for developed countries. For instance, in the European Union - one of the main regions welcoming immigration - nearly a quarter of hired workers were foreigners, according to data from the International Labour Organization.

Despite the contributions foreigners make to the economy by filling labor shortages, they often face resistance from xenophobic local citizens. Unfortunately, such sentiments are also present in our country.

Will Ukraine, which has lost about 7.5 million people due to Russia's military aggression, be able to attract workforce from other countries for economic development and post-war recovery, and is there reason to fear this?

How many immigrants are in Ukraine

Between 2021 and 2024, approximately 28,000 foreigners received entry permits to Ukraine (for citizens of countries without a visa-free regime), according to the State Migration Service. The number of new visa recipients during this period decreased threefold, down to 4,200 by the end of 2024.

Overall, as of the end of last year, there were 47,000 foreigners registered with the migration service for temporary residence, while in 2021, their number was four times higher - 189,000. Last year, 17,000 temporary residence permits were issued in Ukraine compared to 81,000 in the pre-war year. The statistics include both new permits and those that were extended.

In the last four years, the trend of immigration to Ukraine has shown a clear downward trajectory. However, the migration service notes that "labor migration" and attracting highly qualified professionals by businesses are two different matters. The former refers to individuals who are temporarily in the country and working, while the latter concerns those who have the right to obtain permanent residence permits within the migration quota.

The number of labor migrants is also decreasing, as evidenced by data from the State Employment Service (SES). This agency is responsible for issuing work permits for foreigners and stateless persons. Thus, in 2024, 4,700 such permits were issued, 1,400 were extended, and 4,000 were revoked. For comparison, in 2021, 16,200 permits were issued.

Demand for foreigners

At the beginning of 2023, 20% of enterprises reported labor shortages, while by the end of 2024, this figure rose to about 80%, according to a survey conducted by the National Bank. One of the reasons for the labor shortage is the recruitment of men into the Armed Forces, explains Mykhailo Nepran, the first vice-president of the Chamber of Commerce and Industry (CCI).

Businesses are indeed contemplating how to "bring" foreign labor into Ukraine, but there is no basis to claim that they are "crying out" for the need for labor migrants, says Vasyl Voskoboynik, president of the All-Ukrainian Association of Companies for International Employment.

"Businesses understand that attracting foreigners will be extremely challenging, and some are pursuing automation of production, engaging women, older individuals, or people with disabilities. They are looking for internal reserves," explains Voskoboynik.

According to Nepran, in isolated cases, entrepreneurs, particularly in the construction and agricultural sectors, invite highly qualified specialists from abroad to work in Ukraine. "Unskilled labor is not attractive. The option of migrants, as done in Russia, where they are brought in to sweep the streets, is not appealing to businesses," asserts the CCI vice-president.

He states that businesses need individuals who are mentally and culturally closer to Ukraine, particularly specialists from former socialist countries or the Balkans - Serbia or North Macedonia.

Migrants will appear after the war, but there are conditions

The need to attract labor migrants may arise for the Ukrainian economy after the war concludes. As early as July 2023, the Ministry of Economy reported that over the next ten years, an additional 4.5 million people will need to be attracted to the labor market for post-war recovery. This number of workers is necessary for the country's economy to grow by 10% annually, says Voskoboynik.

At the same time, citizens continue to leave Ukraine: in 2024, the net outflow amounted to 500,000 people, and in 2025, according to NBU forecasts, another 200,000 Ukrainians will leave the country. The president of the association for international employment suggests that once the borders open, up to two million more people may leave the state.

To maintain the population at a stable level, it is necessary to attract 250,000 to 300,000 labor or ordinary migrants annually, claims Voskoboynik. "Every year, a city the size of Zhytomyr disappears," he adds.

Why are there no willing workers in Ukraine? The answer is clear - it is the war with Russia. As long as it continues, the country will remain unattractive for labor migrants, says Nepran.

Another reason is the competition for workers from employers in Poland, Germany, and other European countries, which offer significantly higher wages and less regulated migration policies, explains Voskoboynik.

The Ukrainian migration system is overly complicated and bureaucratic, which creates obstacles for attracting workers from abroad. Currently, for a migrant to start working, their employer must first obtain a work permit from the SES. After that, the individual must secure an entry permit (if there is no visa-free regime with their country of origin) and a residence permit from the migration service.

To increase the flow of labor migrants after the war, this entire process needs to be simplified. For example, combining the work permit with the residence permit, as is done in some EU countries. This would reduce bureaucratic barriers to the employment of foreigners.

Another way to attract foreign labor is to extend the stay of students from other countries after they finish their studies. Citizens of the EU could be granted the right to work without additional "bureaucracy," just as Ukrainian refugees were allowed to work in EU countries.

Equally important for sustainable migration are comfortable conditions for doing business and working, say Nepran and Voskoboynik. Only then will Ukrainians return, and foreigners will "create queues at the border."