"1000 days of war. What can replace Washington's support and ensure survival? Experts share their forecasts for 2025."

In public statements, representatives of the United States assert that Russian President Vladimir Putin has not achieved any of his strategic objectives and that Ukraine must succeed. However, in private discussions, many officials in Washington are questioning whether Kyiv will be able to withstand the advance of Russian troops.

The Economist, citing an unnamed U.S. official, notes that the focus has shifted from delivering a "fantastic blow to the Russians and forcing them to negotiate" to how to hold the frontline and keep Kyiv in a strong position for negotiations.

Simon Jenkins, a contributor to The Guardian, suggests that U.S. President Joe Biden should facilitate a peace agreement during the negotiations between Ukraine and Russia, without waiting for newly-elected Donald Trump to take office. The author posits that a return to the failed Minsk agreements of 2014 and the Istanbul agreements of 2022 is possible, but no viable alternative currently exists.

Russia must accept certain external guarantees for Kyiv's future security. The Ukrainian leadership, in turn, must acknowledge that NATO membership is off the table, while Russia may agree to specific agreements between Kyiv and the EU, the author suggests.

Russian President Vladimir Putin is invigorated following the BRICS summit held in Kazan, which was attended by 36 countries not aligned with the West. Now, the Russian leader may be tempted to postpone negotiations until Trump assumes his position in the White House.

Currently, Putin is keeping Kyiv on edge, while uncertainty prevails in NATO. Joe Biden must strive to end at least one of his wars before departing. Perhaps initiating peace talks between Russia and Ukraine could lead to a deal before the chaos and uncertainty of a second Trump era begins, the author believes. However, as of now, there are no real mechanisms in place to conclude the hostilities, and the end of the war in the near term appears unlikely.

A recent publication from the American magazine Foreign Affairs outlined a ceasefire plan under which Kyiv would maintain its independence while receiving a range of security guarantees. Ideally, such a security guarantee for Ukraine would be NATO membership. However, the coalition of supporters, including the U.S., may only provide security assurances if other NATO members are unwilling to accept Kyiv.

The West, in turn, could ask Kyiv to forgo the development of nuclear weapons, and NATO representatives might accept the country with the commitment not to station military contingents on its territory. According to journalists, this model for a ceasefire resembles the situation in Cyprus, where peace has been maintained for 50 years. Critics of this idea argue that Russia will not adhere to signed agreements and will use the ceasefire to regroup its forces.

The authors of The Economist in another article expressed the opinion that U.S. President Joe Biden could declare that Ukraine should be admitted to NATO right now, albeit with certain reservations. Historical precedents exist; for example, West Germany joined NATO in 1955 without security guarantees concerning East German territories. Norway was accepted into NATO in 1949 under the condition that Alliance forces would not be stationed on its territory during peacetime.

Position of the President's Office

Advisor to the Head of the Office of the President, Mykhailo Podolyak, stated that in such scenarios of peace negotiations, where NATO membership is considered piecemeal, the fates of millions of Ukrainian citizens surviving under occupation are overlooked. The representative of the Office also pointed out that West Germany joined NATO on May 9, 1955, but prior to that, Germany had started World War II, resulting in its division. In contrast, Ukraine is engaged in a defensive war.

Natural Resources and Replacement of Components from China

One of the ideas presented in President Volodymyr Zelensky's victory plan, aimed at bringing Donald Trump back to the White House, was that after the war, some U.S. troops in Europe could replace Ukrainian forces. The second proposition is that Kyiv could share its natural resources with Western partners.

Ukrainian business representatives are having discussions with the government and are essentially proposing to Trump to choose who can do business in Ukraine.

One participant in the discussion proposed that it could be everyone except China. The Ukrainian industry is dependent on Chinese technologies and components and could shift to American technologies, attracting more Western investments. This idea is still in its early stages, but some representatives of the Office believe it could resonate with Trump.

Military Assistance from Europe

Kyiv is close to receiving additional assistance from the EU and organizing three new initiatives involving European arms manufacturers, as reported by First Deputy Prime Minister Yulia Svyrydenko. According to her, five joint ventures with Western arms manufacturers are already operational, including companies from Germany and Lithuania. Several companies have opened offices in Ukraine.

"We have three agreements with European companies in the final stages," Svyrydenko noted in an interview with Reuters.

Companies such as British BAE Systems, Franco-German KDNS, defense and aerospace firm Babcock, and MyDefence, which specializes in drone combat technologies, have opened offices in Ukrainian cities in collaboration with Ukrainian manufacturers. The German arms company Flensburger Fahrzeugbau Gesellschaft is constructing a maintenance center in Ukraine.

The arms production sector in Ukraine accounted for 1.8% of Ukrainian GDP in the first half of 2024, compared to 0.3% in 2021.

Amid uncertainty regarding further military assistance, Ukraine is attempting to shift its focus to European suppliers.

Poland, in turn, is stockpiling ammunition. The country's government announced a draft law aimed at allocating 3 billion zlotys (approximately 750 million dollars) to increase the production of large-caliber ammunition. Polish lawmakers plan to develop a financial mechanism for this strategic industry, particularly supporting Polish ammunition manufacturers. Poland borders the Russian exclave of Kaliningrad, which poses a perceived threat.

Infrastructure Bombardments and a Harsh Winter

European representatives fear that the winter of 2024 will be extremely difficult.

"We expect a very tough winter," said a senior U.S. official on the condition of anonymity. According to him, Ukrainians may freeze in their homes if Russia continues its attacks on energy infrastructure.

In August alone, Russian armed forces launched 200 missiles and drones at Ukraine's infrastructure, leading to a reduction in electricity generation by more than 9 GW.

In the most realistic scenario, notes Gennady Ryabtsov, chief researcher at the National Institute for Strategic Studies, "the power supply to industrial facilities and the private sector may be limited to 8-14 hours a day."

"Russian strikes will evidently continue, and nothing guarantees the protection of recently restored facilities from new attacks due to the lack of a multi-tier air defense and missile defense system," the expert added.

However, the Air Forces are still strengthening air defense. According to some reports, Taiwan, with the mediation of the U.S., may have supplied Kyiv with HAWK batteries produced by Raytheon — amounting to up to a third of all Ukrainian air defense systems.

Ukraine also opened the first of four planned factories by the German consortium Rheinmetall. According to its director, Armin Papperger, the facility services infantry fighting vehicles and main battle tanks. Production of Lynx infantry fighting vehicles is expected to begin by the end of the year.

In the near future, the second factory is set to open. The company also plans to build a powder factory and a munitions factory.

"By the end of the year, we will already have our first state-of-the-art Lynx infantry fighting vehicle. Currently, we service infantry fighting vehicles, but also main battle tanks. So this is a very productive joint venture," said the Rheinmetall director.

Plans also include establishing production of air defense systems so that the Armed Forces can "defend themselves." The Rheinmetall director mentioned that he is fully satisfied with the protection of these Ukrainian factories.

Moreover, a contract has been signed with the German giant for satellite reconnaissance services. Thanks to this agreement, Kyiv receives a larger volume of satellite data collected using synthetic aperture radars (SAR) from the company ICEYE. This agreement became possible due to enhanced collaboration between Rheinmetall and ICEYE, which was announced in September 2024.

The Polish authorities are considering the possibility of an alliance with Britain and France to assist Ukraine after Trump's victory. The country's President Donald Tusk hopes to unify efforts with the UK, France, Scandinavian countries, and the Baltic states in an attempt to prevent Kyiv's capitulation should Washington halt military support.

Danish Initiative

Recently, the Ministry of Defense reached several agreements with Danish colleagues worth 535 million euros, which include supplies from defense companies. Funding sources include the Danish and Swedish governments and interest from frozen Russian assets.

Denmark recently agreed