Predictions for the Dollar's Exchange Rate in 2025: What to Expect

In 2024, the exchange rate of the dollar against the hryvnia increased by 10.7%. This has been part of a long-term trend of the dollar strengthening against the hryvnia. It is anticipated that in 2025, the dollar's exchange rate will continue to rise, with analysts forecasting an increase of 9.2%.

This forecast is based on expectations from experts, including bankers, financial analysts, and research institutions. In the materials prepared by RBK-Ukraine, it is stated that the average dollar exchange rate by the end of 2025 could reach 45.9 UAH/dollar, with predictions ranging from 45 to 48 UAH/dollar.

The projected change in the exchange rate for 2025 will be similar to the growth rates observed in 2024. The average rate for the year could overall be around 44.2 UAH/dollar. This is confirmed by forecasts from major Ukrainian and international financial organizations, such as the Ministry of Finance of Ukraine, the National Bank of Ukraine, and the International Monetary Fund.

Experts note that among the factors influencing the exchange rate dynamics, the ongoing war, global economic challenges, as well as changes in financial flows and Ukraine's budgetary policy will significantly impact the hryvnia's exchange rate. In an environment of uncertainty, the economic situation may continue to undergo changes depending on political and external economic circumstances.

Thus, while the hryvnia is expected to gradually weaken, the stabilization of the economic situation and possible financial measures from the government and the NBU may mitigate sharp fluctuations in the dollar's exchange rate.