The NBU assessed how inflation would increase if household tariffs were set at market rates.

This is mentioned in the NBU's inflation report for January 2025.

Considering that consumer inflation surged rapidly throughout the IV quarter and accelerated to 12.0% in December, with a potential additional inflation increase due to bringing tariffs to market levels, it could have reached 16.7%. However, the NBU believes that the implementation of such an impact was prevented by the moratorium on raising tariffs for utility services (natural gas, heating, and hot water).

The NBU reminded that global gas prices remained significantly higher than those used for calculating utility tariffs for Ukrainians.

Recall:

According to NBU calculations, inflation in Ukraine will peak in the II quarter at 15% year-on-year and will start to decline from the middle of the year. By the end of 2025, inflation will slow down to 8.4%.

This will be supported by the NBU's monetary policy measures, the stability of the currency market, higher harvests, improvements in the energy sector, a reduction in the fiscal deficit, as well as moderate external price pressure. Additionally, the pass-through effect of increased energy costs on inflation will gradually decrease, which has already largely occurred.