"All citizens must be prepared for war": a demographer shares a grim outlook for Ukraine.

In 2024, 443 thousand more people left Ukraine than entered. This exacerbates the demographic crisis. Details were shared in an interview with TSN on February 5 by Alexander Gladun, Deputy Director for Research at the Institute of Demography and Social Quality of Life of the NAS of Ukraine.

How Many Ukrainian Refugees Will Return Home

The expert explained that the more people leave, the fewer will return. Moreover, the longer the war lasts, the fewer refugees will come back home. According to demographic estimates, around 5 million people have already left Ukraine.

"We assume that if 50% return, it would be quite good for Ukraine. This amounts to about 2.5 to 3 million of our citizens. It’s possible that more will come back, or perhaps even fewer. Currently, no one can provide a definitive number," Gladun noted.

Gender Ratio and Birth Rate

Before the full-scale war, there were 86 men for every 100 women in Ukraine. Due to the war, this ratio fluctuates. In an optimistic scenario, if the war ends this year, the ratio will be roughly the same — 51% women and 49% men.

At the same time, demographers forecast a rise in the birth rate after the war, as couples may decide to have children they had postponed. However, the longer the war continues, the lesser the impact it will have.

"To prevent the population from decreasing due to natural factors, approximately 220 children need to be born for every 100 women. (...) In an optimistic scenario, we predict that by 2030, there will be 140 children for every 100 women in Ukraine, in a medium scenario — 120, and in a pessimistic scenario — 105," Gladun informed.

The Greatest Threat to Ukraine's Population

The most crucial factor is security, specifically under what conditions the war will end and whether Russia will continue to pose a threat in the future.

"The best-case scenario for us is if Russia disintegrates into smaller states, but we do not see that happening yet. Alternatively, joining NATO could be a solution, although they also do not seem eager to welcome us at this point. (...) In reality, we need to prepare the entire population for war constantly. We must arm ourselves, and above all, develop modern means of combat that do not require human presence on the front lines — drones, naval drones, and so on. We need high military technical capability to partially compensate for the loss in the population of Russia. After all, it’s impossible to mobilize all Ukrainians into the army; the economy simply cannot bear that," the expert stated.

If there are no threats from the Russian Federation, the population size will not be of such fundamental importance.

Mortality Rate and Poor Habits Among Ukrainians

Due to the war, Ukrainians are dying on the front lines, protecting other citizens. Moreover, due to constant stress, chronic illnesses are exacerbating among civilians. All of this raises the mortality rate.

The demographer mentioned that Ukrainians traditionally neglect healthy eating, consume alcohol, and smoke. It took Finland 25 years to persuade its citizens to eat less fatty food, which consequently increased life expectancy by over 10 years.

Divorces and Marriages with Foreigners

According to Gladun, a prolonged war may lead to a significant increase in divorces among Ukrainians.

Many women left the country single, and the demographer speculates that they may find partners abroad. However, women who marry foreigners are unlikely to return to Ukraine.

"I believe that even if women return to Ukraine with foreigners, the percentage of such returns will be minimal and will not significantly affect the demographic situation," the expert added.

It is worth noting that the President of the All-Ukrainian Association of Companies for International Employment, Vasily Voskoboynik, stated that currently in Ukraine, conditionally "every year a city disappears, like Zhytomyr". According to him, we can suggest that women give birth to 5-7 children or attract labor migrants.

The Minister of Energy of Ukraine, Herman Halushchenko, explained what currently determines whether scheduled power outages will be reintroduced.