The pension increase next year may range from 10% to 12%, depending on inflation and wage dynamics. Such predictions were made during a broadcast on Hromadske Radio by Lidiya Tkachenko, a senior researcher at the Institute of Demography and Social Studies.
"The Prime Minister and the Minister of Social Policy assure that the budget, the draft of which has been submitted to the Verkhovna Rada, already includes funds for pension indexing. This means that indexing will occur on March 1, but it is still difficult to say what the specific amounts will be," the researcher explained.
According to her, the exact figures will be known at the beginning of next year, as they depend on inflation and the dynamics of wage growth, from which the Unified Social Contribution (USC) is paid.
"If the positive wage dynamics continue, indexing of 10–12% is quite possible," Lidiya Tkachenko stated.
The expert also noted that in one of the previous years, pension indexing in Ukraine reached 19%. However, last year it was around 6% due to low inflation and minimal wage growth.
According to statistics from the Pension Fund of Ukraine, as of October 1, the average pension amount was 5,852 UAH. There were 10.3 million pensioners in Ukraine as of October 1. Lidiya Tkachenko emphasizes that the distribution of payments is very uneven: about half of the pensioners receive 3–4 thousand UAH, and only about a million citizens receive more than 10 thousand UAH.
The researcher explained that besides the main part of the payments, there are many state programs for pension payments to military personnel, additional payments to children affected by the war, individuals involved in the aftermath of the Chernobyl disaster, senior citizen allowances, etc. Funds for these payments should come from the state budget. Currently, according to Lidiya Tkachenko, they are largely covered by financial support from partners.
The demographer also reminded that since the beginning of Russia's full-scale invasion of Ukraine, in 2024, individual entrepreneurs may not pay the USC. According to her, about half of them are taking advantage of this, which will affect their future pensions since they will not accrue work experience in such cases.
Additionally, on October 21, the media reported that some Ukrainians will not be able to retire at 60. To do so in 2024, a minimum of 31 years of insurance experience is required, and this figure will increase until 2028. Those who lack the required experience have the option to purchase it.
Furthermore, on October 17, the Pension Fund of Ukraine announced that some Ukrainians received a pension increase of 6 thousand hryvnias. As a result, the average pension in Ukraine rose by 466.61 hryvnias.