Nuclear attack, tests, or detonation: what does the bookmaker, who bet on Trump, predict?

A betting portal that accepted wagers on the U.S. presidential elections and predicted the victory of Republican Donald Trump has launched a vote on whether a nuclear explosion will occur by the end of 2024. The highest forecast was made the day after Trump's election. The next surge in expectations occurred on the day when the U.S. allowed Ukraine to strike Russia with long-range missiles. A real-time prediction chart can be viewed on the Polymarket portal.

Users of the portal have already wagered over $1 million on the prediction of whether a nuclear explosion will happen by December 31, 2024. The chart shows that the highest bets were placed on November 6, with 27% betting on an explosion occurring. After that, there was a decline, followed by a peak on November 18, which, however, did not exceed predictions made ten days prior. Currently, users assess the chances of detonation at around 10%, with people willing to bet 10 cents on it.

Below the prediction chart are the rules that will determine whether the bets will be considered valid. It can be seen that bets started being accepted from July 1, 2024, with a deadline of December 31, 2024, at 23:59. It is specified what is meant by "nuclear detonation": this includes a nuclear attack, nuclear tests, and even a false detonation. Confirmation of the explosion must come from reliable sources, as stated on the voting page "Will a nuclear weapon detonate in 2024?"

There are over 200 comments under the voting on the nuclear explosion. Some commenters point out that one could bet all their money on "Yes," and suddenly Russia or North Korea might conduct nuclear tests. There were also mentions of nuclear weapons that could potentially come to Ukraine after U.S. aid is halted. Others recalled the new Russian nuclear doctrine recently signed by President Vladimir Putin.

The portal also accepted bets on Trump's victory and predicted it: the Republican was given a 61% chance of receiving more votes from Americans than Democrat Kamala Harris. Additionally, there is another vote: whether the war in Ukraine will end within 90 days.

Nuclear War - Details

It is noteworthy that after Ukraine received permission to strike with Western long-range weapons on Russian territory, Russian authorities warned of a response, but did not specify whether it would be nuclear. After this, the Ukrainian Armed Forces are believed to have launched ATACMS missiles at an arsenal in the Bryansk region.

Meanwhile, on November 19, Putin signed a nuclear doctrine that had been discussed since early autumn. The doctrine states that Ukraine could be struck with a nuclear bomb if there is a mass aerial attack using various means of destruction (drones, missiles).

At the same time, The Times published a report written by Ukrainian scientists for the Ministry of Defense. The report indicates that Ukraine could likely create a nuclear bomb using reactor plutonium within a few months. Ukrainian authorities categorically deny such assumptions, stating that they do not plan to pursue this direction.

We remind you that on November 20, the Daily Express reported on the conditions under which Donald Trump could transfer nuclear weapons to Ukraine.