Salaries, inflation, and utility rates: NBU's forecast.

The National Bank of Ukraine anticipates that inflation will accelerate in the coming months; however, it is expected to decrease starting mid-year. According to forecasts, by the end of 2025, it will reach 8.4%, and by 2026, it will return to the level of 5%.

The rise in inflation during the first half of the year will be driven by limited food supply due to poor harvests, rising production costs, including energy and labor expenses. However, this trend is temporary: a reduction in energy deficits and stabilization of costs will help slow inflation in the second half of the year.

Economic Growth and Labor Market

According to forecasts, Ukraine's economy is expected to grow by 3.6% in 2025 and by around 4% in the subsequent years.

The labor market is expected to see a decrease in unemployment, although the rate will remain above pre-war levels—10-11% in 2025-2027. There will continue to be a mismatch between employer demands and worker qualifications.

Wages will continue to rise, but the pace of real growth will slow to 3-4% per year.

Utility Tariffs

Prices for gas, heating, and hot water for the population remain below global levels. The moratorium on tariff increases also limits inflationary processes. However, in the future, a revision of tariff policies may be considered in light of global energy resource prices.

It was previously reported that the actual consumer inflation in December 2024 exceeded the National Bank of Ukraine's (NBU) forecast, and prices are expected to continue rising in the coming months.